Even if Prabowo and Gibran failed to reach the necessary thresholds, most analysts believed they would successfully draw enough supporters from the first vanquished candidate to win in the second round.
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But the apparent victory by the Prabowo/Gibran ticket, defying the expectations of many analysts and polls leading into the election with its margin, eliminates the rumoured nuisance of Anies and Baswedan cooperation and spares the ageing soldier from months of additional campaigning.
Prabowo lost presidential elections to Joko, commonly known as Jokowi, in 2014 and 2019 as a firebrand nationalist and disgruntled Islamist, respectively. This campaign, a more amiable affair, he and his army of spin doctors successfully rebranded him as an affable, grandfatherly figure who dances and loves animals.
Significantly, Prabowo promised in the campaign to continue the policy legacy of Jokowi, who is constitutionally barred from running for a third term and will leave the palace in October. The rapprochement, which began with Jokowi appointing his erstwhile antagoniser to the post of defence minister in 2019, has facilitated Prabowo’s political rehabilitation.
The softly spoken Jokowi climbed to power from outside the nation’s ruling elite and governed with action and pragmatism, endearing him to ordinary Indonesians and powering economic growth.
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While he has been widely criticised for weakening key democratic institutions, recent polling showed his support after ten years in office is close to 80 per cent.
Depending on who’s being asked, Prabowo’s selection of Gibran as his running mate – broadly received as a means for Jokowi to maintain a form of political influence – is either symbolic of stability or unwelcome dynasty building.
Satinah, a 55-year-old housewife from the poor side of the Jakarta neighbourhood Simprug Golf 2, voted for Prabowo “due to Jokowi”.
“Since Jokowi became president, my son can get educational insurance [a Jokowi policy providing financial relief for school supplies], so I will continue my support.”
Dimas Purnowo, from the same neighbourhood, went with former Central Java Governor Ganjar after voting for Jokowi in 2014 and 2019.
A woman casts her ballot at a polling station during the election in Medan, Indonesia.Credit: AP
“Basically, I don’t want Jokowi to continue,” he said in reference to Gibran’s candidacy for vice-president. “I am satisfied with Jokowi’s performance, but, lately, he has been seen as supporting his son.
“Prabowo is actually okay, but Gibran is so inexperienced. I don’t think he’s suitable for the job. It’s just too early. But Prabowo’s past is also a problem for me. Basically, I’m not for them.”
“Prabowo’s past” includes allegations of human rights abuses in East Timor and of fomenting deadly anti-Chinese riots in 1998, charges he has long denied. But he was dismissed by the military following the fall of dictator Suharto in 1998 for his role in the abduction of democracy activists, twelve of whom remain missing. He says he has no knowledge of where they are or what happened to them.
Successive United States administrations nonetheless barred him from entry, until Jokowi brought him into his tent in 2019 as Indonesia’s defence minister.
More than 200 million Indonesians were eligible to vote and presidential and legislative elections to install close to 20,000 politicians across 6000 inhabited islands.
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