The Toronto Blue Jays can’t claim that 2023 was a year of great progress for them considering they failed to win a playoff game for the second consecutive season.
It would be fair to say the team learned a great deal along the way, though, for better or for worse. On this day last year we examined what the team discovered about its most important players in 2022, and it seemed to be an exercise worth repeating — even if a tumultuous 2023 turned some of the previous lessons on their head.
The same criteria will apply this time, so in order to qualify for mention here a play must:
1. Be under team control through at least 2025
2. Project to be an above-average regular in 2024 (More than 2.0 fWAR by Steamer)
3. Have played all of 2023 with the Blue Jays
4. Be a position player or starting pitcher
Without further ado, let’s dive into what 2023 has taught the Blue Jays about their top players.
Bo Bichette
What they learned: Bichette’s incredible beginning to 2023 was not the dawn of a new era.
That seems like a bit of a negative lesson to associate with the Blue Jays’ most effective position player in 2023, but Bichette’s year-to-year consistency on offence is well-documented and his defence continued to grade out as below-average, if slightly improved.
Bichette struggled on the bases and demonstrated diminished sprint speed, but that’s a small enough part of his game that it isn’t worth zooming in on.
So, what stood out from a typical Bichette season was the fact that he ended 2022 on a tear that continued into 2023. Between September 1, 2022 and May 1, 2023 he hit .376/.412/.609 and ranked second in the majors in fWAR behind only Aaron Judge (3.8).
That 61-game sample seemed to indicate that the shortstop might’ve unlocked something new offensively, but by the end of 2023 his wRC+ was down to a more human 125 — within five points of where he’s finished every season since 2020.
Bichette’s production appears to be metronomic, which is generally good news for the Blue Jays considering the high standard he’s set for himself.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
What they learned: 2021 is Vladdy’s outlier season until he proves otherwise.
Guerrero’s 2022 season was widely considered to be a down season in the wake of his MVP runner-up the previous year — and he was expected to return to being an elite offensive force in 2023.
Instead, the first baseman regressed further, making his stellar 2021 distinct from the rest of his track record.
Guerrero is still just 24 and his combination of bat speed and raw strength remains impressive. He also has the ability to command the strike zone well, even if impatience has been an issue for him at times.
Vladdy has the ability to become an elite lineup centrepiece once again, but at this point it’s unfair to conceptualize 2021 as the breakout to his true talent level and anything worse than an outlier campaign. After two years of falling well short of superstar production, the bar ought to be set significantly lower.
The sky remains the limit for Guerrero — who made more dangerous contact and got punched out less in 2023 than he did in 2022 — but it can’t be ignored that his wRC+ (125) ranks 29th among qualified hitters over the last two years, while his fWAR (3.8) comes in 78th.
He enters 2024 with something to prove.
George Springer
What they learned: 2022’s subtle power outage was part of a trend, not a blip
Springer’s 2023 was a success in a number of ways as he stayed healthy, produced slightly above-average offence, held his own in the field, and even set a career-high in stolen bases (20).
All of that said, the Blue Jays undoubtedly hoped for more than a .258/.327/.405 line from their leadoff man. Toronto knew that it was buying Springer’s decline years when they signed him prior to the 2021 season, but this was the first year of his career when he didn’t wield a difference-making bat.
The first hint that Springer’s power was slipping came in 2022 when his expected numbers fell sharply, but he overperformed to generate a strong .814 OPS. Last season, his raw production was in line with the Statcast numbers and his power numbers fizzled.
His underlying metrics were quite similar to his 2022, though, and the outfielder’s ability to put a charge into the ball is on a clear downward trajectory.
Season |
Expected Slugging |
Expected wOBA on Contract |
2019 |
.578 |
.468 |
2020 |
.569 |
.450 |
2021 |
.507 |
.430 |
2022 |
.437 |
.374 |
2023 |
.422 |
.369 |
Alejandro Kirk
What they learned: The power may not be gone, but it’s certainly buried
Kirk’s offensive calling cards have always been his plate discipline and contact ability, but at times during his career he’s provided a little thump. The most notable example came during the middle of 2022 when he slugged .605 with an ISO of .261 in May and June.
Since that run he’s now made 717 plate appearances with a 348 SLG and .095 ISO to his name. Since July 1, 2022 Kirk’s slugging and ISO both rank 136th among 138 hitters with 700-plus plate appearances.
Kirk’s on-base ability and defensive contributions mean he can still be a valuable player when the thump is absent from his bat, which is good news for the Blue Jays because it hasn’t been present in a while.
Daulton Varsho
What they learned: Varsho’s offensive profile is quite delicate
Varsho’s first season in Toronto was not a tour de force as much of the value of his glove was undermined by the fact he hit .220/.285/.389 — good for an 85 wRC+.
That’s a grim number, but in many ways the outfielder’s production was extremely similar to his 2022, when his 107 wRC+ helped drive a 4.8 fWAR season. By both counting numbers and notable rate stats he was basically the same guy in 2023 as he was during his career year with the Arizona Diamondbacks.
Year |
PA |
BB% |
K% |
BABIP |
1B |
2B |
3B |
SB |
CS |
2022 |
592 |
7.8% |
24.5% |
.269 |
72 |
23 |
3 |
16 |
6 |
2023 |
581 |
7.7% |
23.2% |
.265 |
70 |
23 |
3 |
16 |
7 |
The notable omission here is home runs. Because Varsho put seven more balls over the wall in 2022 than he did in his debut season with the Blue Jays, his statistical profile shifted.
Varsho has alway struck out a fair amount and seen a relatively low percentage of his balls in play result in hits. That makes him extremely home-run reliant to succeed at the plate.
An optimist might say that he’s a couple of longballs from re-establishing himself as an all-around force. A pessimist might point out that his inability to get his power stroke going at his new home park (.141 ISO) is a concern for a player who needs the ball to clear the fence.
Kevin Gausman
What they learned: Investing in Gausman was an unbelievably good idea.
After an exceptional first year in Toronto, Gausman followed up with an exceptionally similar 2023 campaign. He struck out a few more hitters, and gave back those gains by walking more and allowing a couple more home runs, but the results were essentially the same.
Over the last two seasons Gausman leads all pitchers in fWAR (11.0) and FanGraphs estimates his on-field value at $87.8 million.
That slightly overstates what he’s been worth to the Blue Jays because those calculations are based on FIP rather than ERA, meaning they reflect how well he’s pitched as opposed to his literal results. Even so, this is a guy who just led the American League in strikeouts and finished third in Cy Young voting.
Considering 14 starters not named Shohei Ohtani will take home larger salaries than Gausman in 2024, the Blue Jays have to feel good about the contract they signed him to. The veteran’s 2022 gave a strong indication that Toronto had made a smart move, and his follow-up confirmed it.
Chris Bassitt
What they learned: A few more home runs against aren’t the end of the world
After spending the vast majority of his career in pitcher’s parks (and posting much better numbers at home), it was worth wondering how Bassitt might fare in the punishing AL East.
The right-hander saw his ERA crawl up to 3.60 after managing a 3.13 mark between 2020 and 2022, but he still gave the Blue Jays 200 quality innings.
Bassitt was the kind of reliable middle-of-the-rotation presence managers love, and while he had the occasional rough patch, he made a positive difference for the Blue Jays more often than not.
Most of Bassitt’s peripherals in 2023 were similar to those he posted in 2022. An uptick in home runs (from 0.94 HR/9 to 1.27) was the only significant difference, but it was not enough to derail his season.
Entering his age-35 season, Bassitt is at risk of losing a little bit of velocity like he did in 2023, but his diverse repertoire and strong command give him a good shot to produce another solid season.
José Berríos
What they learned: The Berríos contract isn’t necessarily an anchor
After the first year of the right-hander’s $131 million contract was a disaster, it looked like the Blue Jays might’ve miscalculated by giving Berríos a lengthy deal.
The veteran’s 2022 campaign was a massive anomaly after he’d been one of the most reliable pitchers in the majors from 2017 to 2021, but it was ugly enough that it cast a shadow over his extension.
Berríos managed to get back on track in 2023, giving the Blue Jays 189.2 innings of 3.65 ERA ball, but it came with some warts. His xERA (4.55) was the second-highest mark of his career and his strikeout rate (23.5%) was a touch down from his best seasons.
It’s possible that the Berríos the Blue Jays will see in the years to come will perform at a level in between his early-career work and his worst-case scenario 2022 campaign, but at the very least 2023 seemed to indicate that the durable starter’s effectiveness hasn’t completely deserted him.