It’s well known that this time of year can be rocks and diamonds as far as the neutral observer is concerned.
If a team is in the Finals hunt and has everything to play for, they’ll arc up, but for those who are definitely in or definitely out, things can sometimes fizzle into big scores, one-sided games and boring football.
For the stats-based punter, that presents and interesting angle. If you’re looking at middles, then it can be better for the rest of their side to phone it in, because tackles are worth points and you want your bloke to be making plenty of them – not to mention getting runs in their own half, where they can make metres more readily than in good ball situations. Inside 20m settlers are kryptonite here.
For backs, it’s all about precious line breaks and tries. Get over the stripe enough and you’ll win your Draftstars match-up with ease.
It makes this weekend’s clashes all the more interesting – so with no further ado, here they come.
James Fisher-Harris v Reagan Campbell-Gillard
The weekend kicks off with Western Sydney derby, and all eyes will be on the hyphenated big men.
James Fisher-Harris and Reagan Campbell-Gillard have 75 appearances together, dating back to RCG’s time at Penrith – not to mention 11 games on opposing sides – and while the Eels are all but done for the year in terms of Finals contention, this is just the hors d’oeuvre for a major meeting in the end of year internationals, where the Fish will be leading the Kiwis into battle.
On a stats level, they couldn’t be much closer in profile. Reggie takes the choccies on metres and runs, but JFH wins the defensive batter, making more tackles at greater efficiency.
Reggie always has a major point to prove against his old club, while Fish can lay down a marker for the Tests in October. Watch this space.
Jason Taumalolo v Felise Kaufusi
Speaking of internationals, the spiritual leaders of Tonga’s international revolution will go face to face this weekend as Felise Kaufusi and Jason Taumalolo meet.
Not only are they international teammates, they are also two of the most aggressive players in the NRL – and best when on opposing sides.
Phin Diesel has become as feared a defender as there is in the game, while JT remains an elite ball-carrier.
Understandably, the stats reflect this: Felise is bashing out 26 tackles a game at a ridiculous 94.1% efficiencies, while Jason is still up around 150m per game despite more limited minutes of late.
If you’re comparing the two, it’s a question of volume or efficiency, as Kaufusi will pump out numbers over a full 80, but Taumalolo will take prime real estate in the middle of the field for his time on the park.
![SYDNEY, AUSTRALIA - MARCH 12: David Klemmer of the Wests Tigers shows his emotion during the round two NRL match between Wests Tigers and Newcastle Knights at Leichhardt Oval on March 12, 2023 in Sydney, Australia. (Photo by Cameron Spencer/Getty Images)](https://cdn4.theroar.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/GettyImages-1472901889-1.jpg)
David Klemmer. (Photo by Cameron Spencer/Getty Images)
David Klemmer v Lindsay Collins
Everyone is expecting the Roosters to walk all over the Tigers, but it’s worth remembering that Draftstars cares not for who wins the match – just who ends up with the best individual stats.
In that regard, there’s a very interesting battle in the middle, with David Klemmer likely to play bulk minutes – and, crucially, make bulk tackles – for the Tigers against Lindsay Collins.
Last year the final score was 72-6, but that didn’t translate into metres for the Roosters middles, who were often watching on as the backs did the work, while the Wests forwards picked up all the stats choccies with five middles close to 30 tackles – the Chooks only had one.
Neither Klemmer nor Collins played that night, either, but the 2023 numbers would suggest that, if a similar pattern were followed, the former NSW prop might win out.
He’s leading his QLD rival in metres made and total runs, but trailing in tackling. However, if the Tigers were to have a lot less of the ball…you know the rest.
Joseph Tapine v Pat Carrigan
Joey Tapine is coming down from the peak that saw him named Dally M Prop of the Year, but with Canberra desperate for a win on Saturday against the Broncos, he’ll need to be right at his best to get over one of the two standout sides in the 2023 NRL.
Brisbane’s pack will be lead by Payne Haas, but Individual comparison arguments don’t really work with him – really, there’s isn’t anyone who statistically gets close to a prop who plays as many minutes as the Broncos big man.
Instead, a better match-up is with Pat Carrigan. The Raiders still play with a 13 as a middle in Corey Horsburgh, allowing Tapine to play that ball-playing forward role from the front row, vital for anyone with a stake on who generates the best numbers.
Tapine will rack out the metres and tackle breaks like an elite prop, while Carrigan offers value when it comes to creative aspects – not to mention that he’s suddenly developed a try-scoring streak, with two in three games after not crossing the stripe in his entire career until last month.
Dom Young v Ronaldo Mulitalo
The weekend ends out wide, with two of the NRL’s best wingers looking to power their team home into the Finals with a win.
Dom Young and Ronaldo Mulitalo are both key to their team’s systems, with Newcastle and Cronulla often aiming for the corners with their attacking patterns and backing their wingers’ pace and finishing abilities.
Statistically, they’re a dead heat. Young has 20 tries to Ronaldo’s 19 and edges the metres, with 145m on average from one fewer carry per game, but Mulitalo takes it on line breaks and line break assists, which are vital point-scoring categories.
If you back the Knights to continue their strong form, then get on Dom. If not, Ron’s your man.
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