The Edmonton Oilers are heavily favoured to defeat the Los Angeles Kings in their first-round playoff series, which opens Monday at Rogers Place.
It is easy to forget, however, that the Kings gave the Oilers all they could handle in a seven-game loss last year, largely because of their elite defence.
The Oilers’ offence is predicated on carrying the puck into the attacking zone. Their 7.39 scoring chances per game off of 5-on-5 carry-ins were fourth most in the NHL this season. The Kings, meanwhile, allowed 5.1 such chances per game — second fewest. Los Angeles uses a 1-3-1 neutral-zone forecheck that forces opponents to dump and chase. No team required its opponents to dump in the puck at 5-on-5 more than the Kings (55.5 per cent).
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In four matchups this season, the Oilers dumped in the puck 39.5 times per game against the Kings — well above their season average of 31.6. They generated only 10 scoring chances off of 44 dump-in recoveries, none of which resulted in goals. When the Oilers were able to enter the zone with possession, they struggled to convert those carry-ins into goals, scoring twice off of 100 line carries.
The Oilers scored five 5-on-5 goals against the Kings this season, so they will have to be opportunistic. Connor McDavid’s goal on Jan. 9, when he stripped the puck from Kevin Fiala at the red line and sped past flat-footed defenders, is a prime example.
That play was one of McDavid’s five 5-on-5 scoring chances against Los Angeles this season. Zach Hyman led the Oilers with 12 scoring chances in their season series with the Kings. This matchup is uniquely suited to Hyman’s talents. He led the NHL with 85 inner-slot shots on net at 5-on-5, and it is going to take ugly goals to get the job done.
“It’ll be a tight-checking series, for sure,” Oilers forward Ryan Nugent-Hopkins told reporters Sunday. “(Those) guys always make it tough to get opportunities and chances. Especially the way we’ve been playing the last month or so, we make it tough, too. I think our (defencemen) have been so good at shutting things down and not giving anything easy. Guys can’t get to the net easy. Guys can’t get shots off easy. I think we’re going to keep building on that, but we’ve got to expect tight checking from the other side, too.”
TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS
Nick Paul scored twice in the Tampa Bay Lightning’s Game 7 win against the Maple Leafs last year, capping a strong series by the third line, which also included Ross Colton and Brandon Hagel.
The Maple Leafs had no answers for the Lightning’s bottom six, which explains why they overhauled their third and fourth lines in advance of the first-round rematch. Toronto will roll out a unit that features Alex Kerfoot, Noel Acciari, Calle Jarnkrok, Zach Aston-Reese, David Kampf and Sam Lafferty. Kampf is the only holdover from last year’s group, which included Colin Blackwell, Kyle Clifford and Wayne Simmonds, among others.
In particular, the Aston-Reese-Kampf-Lafferty line has been excellent, controlling 61 per cent of expected goals in 59:21 of shared ice time. Maple Leafs coach Sheldon Keefe told reporters recently that Aston-Reese, Kampf and Lafferty “may have been our best line in the last six weeks or so.”
Unlike years past, the Lightning do not have a dominant third line, which should bode well for the Maple Leafs. Tampa Bay is expected to start Paul, Colton and Mikey Eyssimont, a combination that has played only 8:01 together. Tanner Jeannot, who suffered a lower-body injury April 6, will miss Game 1 on Tuesday but could be available later in the series.
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WINNIPEG JETS
Laurent Brossoit’s only taste of playoff hockey was six years ago, when he came on in relief of Cam Talbot in the Oilers’ 7-0 loss to the San Jose Sharks in Game 4 of the first round. On Tuesday, Brossoit will make his first career playoff start for the Vegas Golden Knights against the Winnipeg Jets, whom he played for from 2018 to 2021.
At 7-0-3, Brossoit is the only goaltender out of 77 who started at least 10 games this season without a regulation loss. The Golden Knights made Brossoit’s life easy, allowing 12.2 slot shots on net per 60 minutes when he was in goal — tied for 14th among qualified goaltenders. He stopped 84.5 per cent of them, which was tied for 12th.
Golden Knights coach Bruce Cassidy is known for his “goaltender-friendly” system, and Brossoit is the latest backstop to benefit from it. Because of Vegas’ defensive structure, Brossoit’s playoff inexperience is not as big of a disadvantage as it would have been under different circumstances.
The Jets, who did not face Brossoit this season, recorded 20 slot shots on net at 5-on-5 over three games against the Golden Knights (6.67 per game), scoring on five of them. Overall, Winnipeg averaged 10.1 slot shots per game during the regular season.
All stats from Sportlogiq
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